Monday, February 26, 2024
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US Greenback Index – The Market’s Compass Technical View

On Tuesday morning I Tweeted a chart and my ideas on the technical situation of the DXY. That Day by day Chart and my feedback are posted beneath.

“Final Friday the DXY impulsively fell again beneath the Cloud and the Median Line (gold dotted line) of the shorter-term bearish Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 by P3). On Monday costs fell and closed beneath the decrease Parallel (stable purple line) of the longer-term bullish Schiff Modified Pitchfork (purple P1 by P3) and at this time, costs violated TDST Assist on the 102 stage. MACD has rolled over by its sign line after failing to retake the bottom in constructive and the Fisher Rework can be monitoring decrease underneath its sign line. The burden of the unfavourable proof and the violations of a number of assist ranges have vastly elevated the percentages that key assist at 101.80 can be examined. Provided that assist on the Decrease Parallel of the gold Schiff Modified Pitchfork holds continued promoting stress can have me re-think my technical thesis.”

As might be seen from the up to date chart posted beneath, after a quick pause the selloff reignited to the down aspect and the index broke the 2 ranges of assist talked about in my feedback from Tuesday. Throughout Wednesday’s buying and selling session the index rapidly violated potential assist on the Decrease Parallel (stable gold line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (gold P1 by P3) and later within the session the DXY plowed by potential value assist on the 100.80 stage which had held value pullbacks in early February and April. Because the saying goes “ bounce up and down on a entice door sufficient instances, it should splinter and provides method”. The selloff has continued this AM and the index is shifting farther away from damaged value assist which now, following the rule of polarity, ought to function as resistance (100.80) in any over offered bounce which can inevitably unfold however there’s little proof that unload has reached it’s nadir. Each MACD and the Fisher Rework definitely don’t recommend that the present leg decrease has run its course.

We’re at present watching the 4-Hour chart intently for any trace that an oversold bounce may very well be growing however as might be seen within the chart beneath (utilizing the identical ancillary technical indicators that I used on the Day by day Chart above) there’s nary a touch at a flip regardless of the oversold situation.

The longer-term Weekly Chart beneath doesn’t add any consolation to anybody lugging lengthy positions within the “inexperienced again”. After breaking Weekly Cloud assist early this yr the DXY didn’t retake the bottom contained in the Cloud and was capped since early June by the Higher Warning Line (purple dashed line UWL) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (P1 by P3) and the Kijun Plot (inexperienced line) because the center of final month. MACD is rolling over by it sign line once more because it tracks in unfavourable territory and the Fisher Rework is again beneath its sign line. The one technical characteristic which may assist gradual the drop is potential assist on the Higher Parallel (stable purple line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork.

In conclusion this nonetheless a stay technical grenade and it could be folly to by one’s self on prime of it. Not but, till it on the very least it’s defused.

For readers who’re unfamiliar with the technical phrases or instruments referred to within the feedback on the short-term technical situation of the DXY can avail themselves of a quick tutorial titled, Instruments of Technical Evaluation or the Three-Half Pitchfork Papers that’s posted on The Markets Compass web site…

Charts are courtesy of Optuma.

To obtain a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software program go to…



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